Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 28,411
2 Arizona 25,778
3 Florida 25,000
4 Mississippi 22,730
5 New York 21,900
6 New Jersey 21,040
7 Alabama 21,010
8 South Carolina 19,647
9 Georgia 19,051
10 Rhode Island 18,817
11 Nevada 18,512
12 District of Columbia 18,146
13 Texas 17,759
14 Tennessee 17,713
15 Massachusetts 17,601
16 Arkansas 16,577
17 Delaware 16,055
18 Maryland 16,014
19 Iowa 15,582
20 Illinois 15,572
21 Nebraska 14,834
22 California 14,533
23 Connecticut 14,183
24 Idaho 14,138
25 Utah 13,876
26 North Carolina 13,067
27 Virginia 11,803
28 Indiana 11,398
29 Wisconsin 11,237
30 Oklahoma 11,110
31 Kansas 11,016
32 South Dakota 10,922
33 Minnesota 10,915
34 New Mexico 10,703
35 North Dakota 10,126
36 Missouri 9,913
37 Michigan 9,760
38 Pennsylvania 9,707
39 Colorado 8,874
40 Ohio 8,703
41 Washington 8,696
42 Kentucky 8,223
43 Puerto Rico 7,145
44 Alaska 6,201
45 Wyoming 5,256
46 Oregon 5,094
47 New Hampshire 5,030
48 Montana 4,708
49 West Virginia 4,326
50 Maine 3,012
51 Hawaii 2,553
52 Vermont 2,342

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Alabama 320
2 Florida 293
3 Georgia 282
4 Nevada 258
5 Mississippi 247
6 Tennessee 245
7 Louisiana 230
8 Idaho 222
9 Puerto Rico 222
10 California 220
11 Arkansas 219
12 Texas 215
13 South Carolina 190
14 North Dakota 168
15 Oklahoma 145
16 Missouri 139
17 Minnesota 137
18 Indiana 136
19 Maryland 133
20 Iowa 131
21 Kansas 129
22 Illinois 127
23 North Carolina 126
24 Wisconsin 124
25 Hawaii 123
26 Kentucky 118
27 Arizona 115
28 Alaska 114
29 Virginia 111
30 South Dakota 110
31 District of Columbia 102
32 Nebraska 102
33 Utah 99
34 Washington 98
35 Ohio 87
36 Montana 81
37 New Mexico 76
38 Oregon 65
39 Delaware 64
40 Michigan 61
41 Rhode Island 61
42 Colorado 59
43 West Virginia 59
44 Pennsylvania 57
45 Massachusetts 49
46 New Jersey 36
47 New York 29
48 Wyoming 24
49 Connecticut 23
50 New Hampshire 14
51 Maine 8
52 Vermont 7

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,787
2 New York 1,663
3 Massachusetts 1,268
4 Connecticut 1,246
5 Rhode Island 958
6 Louisiana 922
7 District of Columbia 837
8 Michigan 653
9 Mississippi 642
10 Illinois 619
11 Delaware 606
12 Maryland 593
13 Pennsylvania 576
14 Arizona 571
15 Indiana 452
16 South Carolina 397
17 Georgia 389
18 Florida 385
19 Alabama 366
20 New Mexico 329
21 Colorado 324
22 Ohio 314
23 Nevada 312
24 Texas 312
25 New Hampshire 308
26 Minnesota 301
27 Iowa 296
28 Virginia 272
29 California 264
30 Washington 233
31 Missouri 227
32 North Carolina 209
33 Arkansas 183
34 Nebraska 183
35 Tennessee 179
36 Kentucky 177
37 Wisconsin 173
38 South Dakota 165
39 North Dakota 153
40 Oklahoma 152
41 Idaho 133
42 Kansas 132
43 Utah 107
44 Maine 92
45 Vermont 92
46 Puerto Rico 87
47 Oregon 85
48 West Virginia 78
49 Montana 70
50 Wyoming 48
51 Alaska 32
52 Hawaii 23

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Mississippi 7
2 Florida 5
3 Louisiana 5
4 South Carolina 5
5 Alabama 4
6 Nevada 4
7 Texas 4
8 Arizona 3
9 Arkansas 3
10 Georgia 3
11 California 2
12 Iowa 2
13 New Mexico 2
14 West Virginia 2
15 Delaware 1
16 Idaho 1
17 Indiana 1
18 Maryland 1
19 Massachusetts 1
20 Minnesota 1
21 Missouri 1
22 Montana 1
23 North Carolina 1
24 North Dakota 1
25 Puerto Rico 1
26 Tennessee 1
27 Washington 1
28 Alaska 0
29 Colorado 0
30 Connecticut 0
31 District of Columbia 0
32 Hawaii 0
33 Illinois 0
34 Kansas 0
35 Kentucky 0
36 Maine 0
37 Michigan 0
38 Nebraska 0
39 New Hampshire 0
40 New Jersey 0
41 New York 0
42 Ohio 0
43 Oklahoma 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Pennsylvania 0
46 Rhode Island 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 140,287 1 99
Lake Tennessee 112,885 2 99
Lee Arkansas 101,163 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 96,275 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 93,904 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 33,409 135 95
Richland South Carolina 21,253 387 87
York South Carolina 12,777 902 71
Orange California 12,762 903 71
Pierce Washington 6,973 1642 47

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,139 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Galax city Virginia 3,781 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,517 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 3,167 5 99
Richland South Carolina 368 689 78
Davidson Tennessee 313 784 75
Orange California 229 1028 67
Pierce Washington 165 1274 59
York South Carolina 103 1602 49

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons